- Presidential Election. The 60th Quadrennial U.S. Presidential Election runs on November 5th 2024. BUSR has the latest odds for all potential candidates (including a few names that may surprise you). All data will be updated throughout the many midterms, scandals, and surprise announcements that are sure to come between now and election night.
- Election betting is often referred to as “futures” because it is a wager on a specific, future event. Most election wagers are moneyline bets or straight bets. It’s a straight forward wager normally with no spread involved. For a sporting event, you are bidding on which team will win.
The 2020 Presidential Election has not reached the point where it is just a few days away. Bettors are fervently trying to dissect the different polls to try and find some angles that will help them out. But the example of the 2016 Election might give pause about relying too much on the polls.
This election season has been one of the most controversial and contested in the history of the United States. With the actual election just a few days away, the picture seems more convoluted than ever. That’s why many people are leaning on the polls trying to find some sort of insight on the outcome, especially if they’re planning on doing some betting on the election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
But we are four years removed from an election where the pools were famously wrong in predicting the outcome. That’s why we think it’s a good idea to look at what happened then and how the polls are looking with the election so close by. That will help you to make smart wagers on the election at top gambling websites.
What Happened In 2016
Presidential Election Betting The United States Presidential Election is the foundation of American democracy. Since the first presidential election where George Washington became the nation’s leader, the event has grown along with the country.
Four years ago, most polls suggested that Democrat Hilary Clinton would win the Presidential Election by a relatively comfortable margin. Yet challenger Donald Trump ended up being the candidate who won by a sizable margin.
While Clinton won the popular vote by a solid count, Trump was able to come through in the Electoral College. The key to his success was his ability to pull off upsets in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. He also “held serve,” so to speak, meaning that Clinton wasn’t able to pull of upsets in some of the states where Trump was supposed to win, which might have offset Trump’s own upsets.
The aftermath was a deep mistrust in political polls in general. There was also much talk about Trump’s so-called “silent majority.” These were the people who didn’t participate in the polls or speak up about their support, only to step up in a big way on Election Day, particularly in the key states mentioned above.
SILENT MAJORITY!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 2, 2020
Polls and Margins of Errors
The notion that the polls were completely wrong in 2016 is a little misguided, or at least not completely the truth. All polls have a so-called margin or error. This is a percentage which attempts to account for the possible range of outcomes.
For example, take a look at a hypothetical poll:
- Candidate A: 52%
- Candidate B: 48%
- Margin of error: 10 points
This poll is obviously expecting Candidate A to win the election in question. But the distance between the two in the polls is only 4 points. The margin of error of 10 points is enough to push Candidate B right past Candidate A.
It’s important to note that, in 2016, presidential polls from the top statistical sites, such as FiveThirtyEight, had a Trump victory within their margin of error. So while it was definitely an upset, it was certainly not unthinkable.
That’s why you should look at polls as nothing more than an indicator and a tool for your Presidential Election bets. If you rely on them completely, you can be deeply disappointed. And if you don’t also take into account the odds, you could be missing out on possible value.
The Electoral Map
Another problem with staying too focused on polls when betting the Presidential Election is that you might get caught concentrating on the forest and missing the trees. When you hear some generalized pieces of polling information, saying that so-and-so is up or down so many points, it is usually a national poll.
That would be fine if the election were based on a popular vote. But that’s not how American Presidential elections work. Instead, you have to consider the Electoral College, which doles out a certain normal of votes to each state, with the winner needing to capture a majority of those Electoral votes.
In addition to that, you have to remember that certain states even dole out their Electoral Votes in increments based on how many votes each candidate gets. All of that factors into the final picture. Yet people locking into overall polls will miss out on these important factors.
The best way to use the polls is to look at the Electoral Map and by trying to dissect the votes as closely as possible. Take an overview of how many votes each candidate might win. But you’re not done there.
Looking at the Election Betting Odds
It would be easier to bet on the Presidential Election if it were just an even-money type thing. In other words, if you bet $50 on one candidate to win and he does, you’d win $50 in return. But that’s not how it works.
Gambling websites need to adjust the odds so that they don’t take a bath. It’s the concept behind sports betting. If people could just bet on favorites all the time and expect to win back all the money they wagered, all of the sportsbooks and sports gambling sites in the world would quickly go out of business.
The same goes for the Presidential Election. Oddsmakers try to determine the level of betting on each side. They then adjust the money line so that there is an even money each way, which is ideal for them because they can simply pay off the winning bets with the losing ones and collect their takeout as profit.
In the case of the Presidential Election, most gambling sites use what’s known as the money line to even things out. The money line identifies a favorite and a long shot. It then applies a number to each candidate.
This number shows the amount you have to bet on the favorite to win $100 in return. By contrast, for the long shot, $100 wagered will get you the number listed. You’ll see a minus sign in front of the favorite’s odds and a plus sign in front of the long shots.
For example, MyBookie.ag currently lists the odds of winning the Presidential Election as follows:
- Joe Biden: -175
- Donald Trump: +135
- Kamala Harris: +10000
- Mike Pence: +10000
According to these odds, you have to bet $175 on Biden to win $100 in return. You have to bet $100 on the President to win $135 in return. And, if you want to take the chance that something unforeseen will happen and either Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris or Vice President Mike Pence will win, you’ll end up with $10,000 on a $100 bet, which works out to 100 to 1.
Well, if you truly believe the current polls which project Biden as the winner, you’ll have to bet more than you can hope to win in return. It also means that you’ll have to bet a little bit more to win more in return.
By contrast, betting on the President will get you a little bit more value, a common betting term, in return. You won’t have to bet as much to win as much money.
As a result, you can try to look at the polls and ask yourself the following two questions:
- Is Biden a sure-enough favorite to warrant paying a premium on a bet that wont get you much back in return?
- Does Trump have enough of a chance to win that it will be worth putting up the money, knowing that the reward for this risk is a little higher?
Sports bettors are used to making these types of determinations all the time. Those who go into betting the 2020 Presidential Election without that kind of background can get caught up solely on who they believe is going to win.
But betting of any kind is about maximizing your potential return and minimizing your risk. If you can do that with the Presidential Election results on Tuesday, you are giving yourself the best possible chance.
Conclusion
Let’s look back at all we’ve talked about here:
- Polls are imperfect, and as long as an outcome is within the margin of error, it can happen.
- The 2020 Election will be decided not by a popular vote, but by the Electoral College, which means you should only focus on polls that take that into account.
- You should be aware of the odds and should only make your wager based on if it provides you ample value for the risk you are incurring.
Having said all this, is it possible that you can do all that and still lose your bet? Unfortunately, that answer is yes. It is gambling, after all.
But if you can give yourself the best possible information while considering the odds, your chances will greatly improve. And, if you apply that to every bet you make, not just the one for the 2020 Presidential Election, you’ll have success in the long run.
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.Yesterday morning, I was having a conversation with a dear friend of mine in another state. She asked me if there was a lot of betting on coronavirus situations. I replied that I thought the upcoming elections were probably generating more action.
She replied, “Isn’t it illegal to gamble on political elections in the United States?”
I’m not sure I knew, so I thought I’d do some research.
Here’s what I learned about whether you can gamble on elections in the United States:
There are quite a few safe online betting sites offering US Presidential Odds, but we’ve found MyBookie to be the best. Follow this link to visit MyBookie or check out our other top-rated online sportsbooks for the 2020 presidential election.
- MyBookie – 100% welcome bonus up to $1,000
- BetNow – 100% welcome bonus up to $1,000
- Bovada – 100% welcome bonus up to $250
- BetUS – 100% welcome bonus up to $2,500
Want a little more info? Jump ahead and learn more about the latest election betting odds and lines.
Betting on United States Elections Isn’t a New Thing
Betting on presidential elections has a long and notorious history in the United States.
And just like the sports betting scene, the action on Presidential elections can be thought of as a marketplace.
From shortly after the Civil War until shortly after World War II, markets for betting on the presidential election were big and efficient. Not only that, but the favorites in betting markets also tended to win elections.
I’d contend that it probably hasn’t, really. It’s now more of an underground betting activity conducted with offshore sportsbooks. Previously, betting on presidential elections was an organized activity – even when it was illegal.
But we do have access to more betting opportunities than ever before. Also, modern scientific polling has replaced some of the interest in betting markets and their predictions for who’s going to be the next President of the United States.
Historically, so-called betting commissioners managed these betting markets and used standard contracts for that purpose. Sometimes you’d see more money betting on elections than were being put into action on stocks and bonds.
In the late 19th and early 20th century, you could get daily odds from various newspapers for at least a month before the election.
The most significant election, in terms of dollars wagered, was the election of 1916. Bettors wagered over $165 million on that contest. (Those dollars have been adjusted for inflation.)
Betting Markets Have Historically Been Good at Predicting Winners
The betting markets on elections in New York City almost always predicted an election’s winner. In fact, the market was also a good predictor of whether a vote was going to be close.
The favorite in these betting markets won almost three out of four times over 50 years. That’s even more impressive when you consider that the practice of conducting scientific polls didn’t begin until the 1930s.
Much of the historical information related to election betting markets between the end of the Civil War and the first half of the 20th century can be found in more detail in a paper on historical prediction markets written by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf.
The conclusion so far, though, is that regardless of the legalities involved, people have been able to bet on presidential elections in the United States for a long time.
And, before polling became standard, betting markets were the de facto means of predicting election outcomes and were remarkably accurate.
Betting Political Elections Is Illegal Throughout the United States
Betting on sports used to be illegal almost everywhere, but over the last couple of years, legislation has loosened up regarding betting on sports.
People also bet on entertainment events like who’s going to win the Oscars, although that kind of betting isn’t as prevalent and isn’t legal in as many states.
This doesn’t mean it’s illegal everywhere. The United Kingdom has always been more open-minded about gambling than the United States, and bets on political events are still common there.
And some bookmakers in other countries are happy to take action from U.S. citizens regardless of the legality in the bettor’s jurisdiction.
Why Is It Illegal to Bet on Elections in the United States?
One of the concerns related to betting on sports is that it might corrupt the integrity of the sport. The Black Sox Scandal in 1919 is a classic example, although it seems to me that outlawing sports betting has done little to prevent such activity.
Everyone I know bets on sports, either with a local bookmaker, an online sportsbook, or both.
There’s a big difference, though.
With sports, the big concern is that bettors will bribe athletes to lose on purpose. In fact, countless movies have been made about boxers who were bribed to throw a match.
Think about it.
If your candidate is a massive longshot, according to the bookmakers, you might be less likely to show up and vote – ensuring that your candidate will lose.
I think this is a lousy argument for making election betting illegal, though.
Polls might easily have the same effect, but, as far as I know, no one has suggested we ban polling.
And, even though you can’t legally bet on an election in the United States, the bookmakers in other countries are still taking action. It’s easy to find out what the odds are for your favorite candidate.
I’ve been watching the gambling industry in the United States for a couple of decades now, and if I’ve learned anything, it’s this:
Changes in gambling laws happen SLOWLY.
How to Bet on the Presidential Election Anyway
First, I’m no lawyer. I don’t even play one on television. I have no idea what the legal risks are when it comes to betting on presidential elections.
But if you’re determined to bet on the presidential election anyway, I can offer some suggestions.
- Your first option is to find a likeminded individual who’s willing to bet with you. This should be someone you know and trust who won’t stiff you. Betting with such a person eliminates the vig, which is the amount that the sportsbook charges you to place a bet.
- Your second option is to find an online sportsbook operating from another country that’s willing to take action from a United States citizen on the election. Many such businesses exist.
As far as choosing the best political betting site is concerned, pay close attention to the bookmaker’s reputation. You’re talking about transferring money to and from a company that’s operating in an at-best grey legal area.
Such sportsbooks claim that the action they’re taking is governed by the jurisdiction where they operate. Presumably, it’s legal there to bet on such activities. United States prosecutors have a different attitude, which is why people like Calvin Ayre are hard to find.
The point is that you need to be comfortable that the book is going to pay you off if and when you win your bets. Some offshore sportsbooks are notorious for stiffing their customers.
Once you find such a sportsbook, you’ll need to find a way to get money to and from the company.
Once you’ve established an account at such a company and funded it, actually placing the bet is just a matter of finding the wager you want to make, inputting the amount you wish to wager, and pointing and clicking.
Odds on the 2020 US Presidential Election
Odds at MyBookie
- Joe Biden (-155)
- Donald Trump (+115)
- Kamala Harris (+1500)
- Mike Pence (+10000)
- Anyone Else (+35000)
Visit MyBookie
Odds at Bovada
- Joe Biden (-165)
- Donald Trump (+125)
- Kamala Harris (+7500)
- Mike Pence (+7500)
Visit Bovada
Odds at BetOnline
- Joe Biden (-180)
- Donald Trump (+160)
- Kamala Harris (+10000)
- Mike Pence (+10000)
- Jo Jorgensen (+50000)
Visit BetOnline
It’s no secret that offshore sportsbooks take action on presidential elections. I see the odds being published and updated regularly on various news sites.
So let’s look at recent odds for the presidential election at BetOnline.ag has Joe Biden at -180 and Donald Trump at +160. You could also bet on Hillary Clinton at +6000.
The -180 odds on Joe Biden mean that if you bet $180 on Biden winning, you win $100 if he wins the election.
The +160 odds on Donald Trump mean that if you bet $100 on Trump winning, you win $160 if he wins the election.
The minus sign indicates that he’s the favorite, so that’s the amount you must risk to win $100.
Hillary Clinton is clearly a longshot, so if you wager $100 on her winning, and she somehow pulls it off, you’d win $600.
Even with 60 to 1 odds, though, I think betting on Hillary is a sucker bet.
Live Presidential Election Odds
Conclusion
Presidential Election Sportsbook
Sure, people have been doing so for decades.
But it isn’t legal to take action on such wagers.
Presidential Election Gambling Odds
My advice is to obey the law, but if you want to put a little money down on the next presidential election, at least only risk money you can afford to lose – especially if you’re betting with an offshore sportsbook rather than a buddy of yours.